California -1 3.3% Fade The World
Just 23% of the money coming in on Cal, and I don’t really understand it. As long as they’re not down to a third string QB they have been great this year.
Cal has done well in these games where they are facing an inferior defense. UCLA ranks 107th in yards per play allowed, and Cal’s offense has struggled, but they average 25ppg against teams not in the top 75 in YPP defense, and they are 4-1 in those games thanks to a great defense. UCLA on the flip side is just 1-4 when facing a top 60 run defense averaging just 17.3ppg. Cal comes into the game ranking 34th against a tough schedule and UCLA may not have their QB Thompson.
Honestly, I think this game comes down to TO margin, and Cal has turned the ball over just 12 times all year while UCLA has given it up 21 times and are -8 TO margin. UCLA has 14 turnovers in 4 games against top defenses - San Diego State, Cinci, Utah, and Arizona State. UCLA also has nothing to play for here as they are not going to a bowl game, while Cal is, but there is no guarantee with just 6 wins they will need a 7th, and it will be another thing Justin Wilcox can check off his list. Cal lost each of the last two years to UCLA, and were -5 TO margin in last year’s loss. I expect the momentum from their win over Stanford to carry over to this game.
